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V-Lab

Roundhill UNH WeeklyPay ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

24.17%

increased by 0.37%

1 Week

36.66%

increased by 12.86%

1 Month

46.90%

increased by 23.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Roundhill UNH WeeklyPay ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 3, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
37.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.02
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-39.10***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2287
2.42**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6472
23.99***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0131
1.40

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days