Roundhill UNH WeeklyPay ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
26.11%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
25.75%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
24.39%
decreased by 1.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.85) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9861 | 35.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.8464 | -7.68*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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