3IQ Bitcoin ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
39.41%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
41.47%
increased by 1.19%
1 Month
43.46%
increased by 3.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4267 | 10.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1003 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6347 | 6.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0328 | 4.50*** |
Persistence:
0.735
Half-life:
2 days
Other 3IQ Bitcoin ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs