Skip to main content
V-Lab

3IQ Bitcoin ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

39.32%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

41.32%

increased by 1.18%

1 Month

43.28%

increased by 3.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of 3IQ Bitcoin ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4328
10.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1007
2.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6379
6.49***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0330
4.56***

Persistence:

0.739

Half-life:

2 days