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V-Lab

3IQ Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

37.96%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Week

40.18%

increased by 1.00%

1 Month

42.23%

increased by 3.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of 3IQ Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0223
3.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5371
28.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2272
18.84***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.2797
0.63
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4955
0.71
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2747
0.26

Persistence:

0.673

Half-life:

2 days