V-Lab
3IQ Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
37.96%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Week
40.18%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
42.23%
increased by 3.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0223 | 3.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5371 | 28.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2272 | 18.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.2797 | 0.63 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4955 | 0.71 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2747 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.673
Half-life:
2 days
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