V-Lab
3IQ Bitcoin ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.06%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
43.63%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
45.61%
increased by 1.40%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.8783 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0442 | 15.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9818 | 139.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0044 | 3.04*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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