V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.10%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
13.38%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
14.38%
increased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 187% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 187% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0252 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0524 | 4.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8840 | 84.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.0980 | 3.49*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0252 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0524 | 4.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8840 | 84.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0980 | 3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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