V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.74%
increased by 0.81%
1 Week
13.99%
increased by 1.06%
1 Month
14.88%
increased by 1.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 186% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 186% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0251 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0525 | 4.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8842 | 84.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0976 | 3.49*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 4.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8842 | 84.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0976 | 3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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