V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
12.61%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
13.20%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
14.78%
increased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 388% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0354 | 11.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8426 | 195.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1372 | 27.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0133 | 8.74*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0661 | 7.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9250 | 90.71*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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