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V-Lab

iShares US Real Estate ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.45%

increased by 0.91%

1 Week

14.65%

increased by 1.11%

1 Month

15.19%

increased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares US Real Estate ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 16, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 382% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 382% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0357
2.98***
βGARCH0.8431
59.98***
γleverage0.1364
7.23***
λ₁tau intercept0.0131
1.80*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0651
2.78***
λ₃tau persistence0.9261
33.77***

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0357
2.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8431
59.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1364
7.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0131
1.80*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0651
2.78***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9261
33.77***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days