21Shares Solana ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.45%
1 Week
211,476.78%
1 Month
2,877,284,553,185,520,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 14592 trading days (~57.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4958 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7520 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4956 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0750 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0727 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
14592 days
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