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V-Lab

21Shares Solana ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

36.45%

increased by 26.24%

1 Week

211,476.78%

increased by 211,466.57%

1 Month

2,877,284,553,185,520,000,000.00%

increased by 2,877,284,553,185,520,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of 21Shares Solana ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 14592 trading days (~57.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4958
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7520
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4956
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0750
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0727

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

14592 days