V-Lab
BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
27.80%
decreased by 3.67%
1 Week
26.97%
decreased by 4.50%
1 Month
25.66%
decreased by 5.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 17, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0147 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6877 | 58.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2286 | 20.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.0914 | 0.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5572 | 0.21 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0378 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.817
Half-life:
3 days
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