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V-Lab

BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

25.79%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Week

26.28%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Month

27.19%

decreased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 17, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7482
12.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1437
4.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7342
17.68***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0031
-2.60***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days