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V-Lab

BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

22.05%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Week

22.88%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

24.36%

increased by 0.89%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 17, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6983
12.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1460
4.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7260
17.19***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0080
-2.07**

Persistence:

0.872

Half-life:

5 days