V-Lab
BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.05%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
22.88%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
24.36%
increased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 17, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6983 | 12.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1460 | 4.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7260 | 17.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0080 | -2.07** |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
Other BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs