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V-Lab

BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

21.70%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Week

22.50%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

24.33%

increased by 1.52%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 17, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.13) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0802
9.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1190
22.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7983
135.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.1263
28.69***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days