V-Lab
BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.42%
decreased by 2.26%
1 Week
17.40%
decreased by 2.28%
1 Month
17.33%
decreased by 2.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 17, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 55% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.82 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0670 | 27.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1770 | 42.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7973 | 170.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2593 | 19.57*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8219 | 19.59*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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