V-Lab
BMO Equal Weight US BKS Indx GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
20.70%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
21.73%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
23.77%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 17, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2758 | 20.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1454 | 17.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7491 | 81.15*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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