V-Lab
Columbia Research Enhanced Small Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1.61%
1 Week
2,200.36%
1 Month
89,980,157,812,708,910.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5003 | 22.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1840 | 93.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -22.95*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0529 | 15.42*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 10.00*** |
Persistence:
0.434
Half-life:
1 days
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