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V-Lab

Columbia Research Enhanced Small Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1.61%

decreased by 1.28%

1 Week

2,200.36%

increased by 2,197.47%

1 Month

89,980,157,812,708,910.00%

increased by 89,980,157,812,708,910.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Columbia Research Enhanced Small Cap ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5003
22.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1840
93.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-22.95***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0529
15.42***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
10.00***

Persistence:

0.434

Half-life:

1 days