Columbia Research Enhanced Small Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
4.61%
1 Week
20,488,389,160.69%
1 Month
97,598,325,805,312,860,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 32.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1327 | 38.96*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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