V-Lab
Columbia Research Enhanced Small Cap ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.65%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
14.67%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
14.73%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 55 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8167 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 8.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -20.9264 | -0.60 |
| γ2 | 27.1844 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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