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V-Lab

Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1.95%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

1.68%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

1.44%

decreased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9844
432.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0312
0.17
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2695
0.19
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1232
0.40

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days