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V-Lab

Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

2.25%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

2.46%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

2.33%

decreased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.03
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
49.45***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.14
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0497
34.89***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8542
1,581.78***

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days