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V-Lab

Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

4.65%

increased by 1.26%

1 Week

4.70%

increased by 1.31%

1 Month

4.91%

increased by 1.52%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
101.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.02
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0186
-0.94
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1982
86.50***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days