V-Lab
Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.65%
increased by 1.26%
1 Week
4.70%
increased by 1.31%
1 Month
4.91%
increased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | 101.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0186 | -0.94 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1982 | 86.50*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
Other Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs