Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
2.25%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
2.46%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
2.33%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 49.45*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.14 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0497 | 34.89*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8542 | 1,581.78*** |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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