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Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

3.84%

increased by 0.54%

1 Week

4.08%

increased by 0.78%

1 Month

4.63%

increased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1121
6.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1741
3.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9230
57.84***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

13.7380
0.66

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days