V-Lab
Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.84%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
4.08%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
4.63%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1121 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1741 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9230 | 57.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 13.7380 | 0.66 |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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