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V-Lab

Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

3.17%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

3.49%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

4.40%

increased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0277
3.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1281
10.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8499
34.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
59.60***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8115
9.63***

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days