V-Lab
Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
3.17%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
3.49%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
4.40%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0277 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1281 | 10.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8499 | 34.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 59.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8115 | 9.63*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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