V-Lab
Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - November AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
3.09%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
3.64%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
4.61%
increased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.28) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1468 | 9.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7540 | 26.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2833 | 12.50*** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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