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V-Lab

Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

4.02%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

6.03%

increased by 2.02%

1 Month

51.84%

increased by 47.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 36% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8154
91.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0046
18.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2957
16.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0004
0.06
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0036
3.14***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days