V-Lab
Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
12.46%
1 Week
14,670,141,103.62%
1 Month
343,544,163,099,884,440,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0125 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9109 | 442.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1433 | 329.43*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0726 | 35.75*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 2.50** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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