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V-Lab

Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

12.46%

increased by 2.69%

1 Week

14,670,141,103.62%

increased by 14,670,141,093.85%

1 Month

343,544,163,099,884,440,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 343,544,163,099,884,440,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 25, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0125
2.37**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9109
442.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1433
329.43***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.50
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0726
35.75***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
2.50**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days