V-Lab
Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.02%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
6.03%
increased by 2.02%
1 Month
51.84%
increased by 47.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 36% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8154 | 91.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0046 | 18.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2957 | 16.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0004 | 0.06 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0036 | 3.14*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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