V-Lab
Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
26.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
26.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
26.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8650 | 5.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 4.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8777 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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