Skip to main content
V-Lab

Columbia Corporate Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

3.05%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

3.12%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.93%

increased by 1.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Columbia Corporate Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 118% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0748
26.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9455
553.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0405
-8.56***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.33
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2776
26.76***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0062
9.08***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days