V-Lab
Columbia Corporate Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3.05%
1 Week
3.12%
1 Month
4.93%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 118% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 26.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9455 | 553.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0405 | -8.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2776 | 26.76*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0062 | 9.08*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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