Columbia Corporate Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.77%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
4.92%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
5.24%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8204 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1297 | 1.94* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7844 | 5.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5803 | -0.66 |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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