V-Lab
Columbia Corporate Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.46%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
4.64%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.03%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8381 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1290 | 1.95* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7891 | 5.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3440 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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