V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.63%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.70%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
0.72%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.04 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4999 | 55.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0020 | 1.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0338 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
0 days
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