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V-Lab

PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

1.59%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

1.87%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

2.15%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5157
110.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
112.84***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0169
1.98**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1743
0.47

Persistence:

0.766

Half-life:

3 days