PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
1.59%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
1.87%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
2.15%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5157 | 110.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 112.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0169 | 1.98** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1743 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.766
Half-life:
3 days
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