PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.16%
1 Week
10.35%
1 Month
9.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.5000 | 37.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -33.65*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3656 | 109.84*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0004 | 0.01 |
0.250
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 37.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -33.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3656 | 109.84*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0004 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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