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V-Lab

PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

1.43%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

1.47%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

1.55%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0114
1.95*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0499
4.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8608
12.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-2.85***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9558
4.28***

Persistence:

0.899

Half-life:

7 days