PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.43%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
1.47%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
1.55%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0114 | 1.95* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0499 | 4.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8608 | 12.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -2.85*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9558 | 4.28*** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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