V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
235.12%
increased by 1.45%
1 Week
239.21%
increased by 5.54%
1 Month
241.22%
increased by 7.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8289 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1609 | 1.41 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3566 | 0.85 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.9761 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.518
Half-life:
1 days
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