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V-Lab

Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

197.25%

decreased by 21.24%

1 Week

201.54%

decreased by 16.95%

1 Month

202.86%

decreased by 15.63%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9787
6.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0935
1.11
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2208
0.32
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1069
-0.10

Persistence:

0.314

Half-life:

1 days