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Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

229.66%

decreased by 27.06%

1 Week

225.52%

decreased by 31.20%

1 Month

221.94%

decreased by 34.78%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst192.9904
7.03***
αARCH0.1198
0.71
βGARCH0.6873
2.35**
νDF200.0000
0.01

0.687

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

192.9904
7.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1198
0.71
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6873
2.35**
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.01

Persistence:

0.687

Half-life:

2 days