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Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

198.15%

decreased by 4.79%

1 Week

208.26%

increased by 5.32%

1 Month

215.92%

increased by 12.98%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC

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Date Range:

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graph of Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 191.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 191.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst189.8750
7.16***
αARCH0.1024
0.66
βGARCH0.6672
1.71*
νDF191.4412
0.00

0.667

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

189.8750
7.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1024
0.66
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6672
1.71*
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

191.4412
0.00

Persistence:

0.667

Half-life:

2 days