V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
198.15%
decreased by 4.79%
1 Week
208.26%
increased by 5.32%
1 Month
215.92%
increased by 12.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 191.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 191.44 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 189.8750 | 7.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.1024 | 0.66 |
| βGARCH | 0.6672 | 1.71* |
| νDF | 191.4412 | 0.00 |
0.667
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 189.8750 | 7.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1024 | 0.66 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6672 | 1.71* |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 191.4412 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.667
Half-life:
2 days
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