V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
214.45%
decreased by 7.88%
1 Week
218.39%
decreased by 3.94%
1 Month
221.31%
decreased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 159.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 159.56 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 196.2369 | 6.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.1027 | 0.59 |
| βGARCH | 0.6531 | 1.56 |
| νDF | 159.5575 | 0.01 |
0.653
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 196.2369 | 6.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1027 | 0.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6531 | 1.56 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 159.5575 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.653
Half-life:
2 days
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