Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
229.66%
decreased by 27.06%
1 Week
225.52%
decreased by 31.20%
1 Month
221.94%
decreased by 34.78%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 192.9904 | 7.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.1198 | 0.71 |
| βGARCH | 0.6873 | 2.35** |
| νDF | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
0.687
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 192.9904 | 7.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1198 | 0.71 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6873 | 2.35** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.687
Half-life:
2 days
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