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V-Lab
V-Lab

Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

214.45%

decreased by 7.88%

1 Week

218.39%

decreased by 3.94%

1 Month

221.31%

decreased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 159.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 159.56 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst196.2369
6.97***
αARCH0.1027
0.59
βGARCH0.6531
1.56
νDF159.5575
0.01

0.653

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

196.2369
6.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1027
0.59
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6531
1.56
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

159.5575
0.01

Persistence:

0.653

Half-life:

2 days