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V-Lab

Leverage Shares 2X Long NIO Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

92.61%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Week

93.29%

decreased by 1.01%

1 Month

95.36%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Leverage Shares 2X Long NIO Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 18, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 10.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run40.7597
0.77
αscore0.0491
0.54
βpersistence0.9603
21.61***
νDF10.1089
0.04

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

40.7597
0.77
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0491
0.54
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9603
21.61***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.1089
0.04

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days