Leverage Shares 2X Long NIO Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
92.61%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Week
93.29%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
95.36%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 10.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 40.7597 | 0.77 |
| αscore | 0.0491 | 0.54 |
| βpersistence | 0.9603 | 21.61*** |
| νDF | 10.1089 | 0.04 |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 40.7597 | 0.77 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0491 | 0.54 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9603 | 21.61*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1089 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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