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State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.66%

increased by 1.08%

1 Week

16.72%

increased by 1.14%

1 Month

16.93%

increased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 10.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3756
2.89***
αARCH0.0822
8.12***
βGARCH0.9857
192.67***
νDF10.2039
1.09

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3756
2.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0822
8.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
192.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.2039
1.09

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days