V-Lab
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.00%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
15.12%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
15.52%
decreased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3757 | 11.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0822 | 32.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9857 | 761.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1276 | 4.39*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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