State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
16.95%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
17.00%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
17.15%
decreased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 10.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3724 | 2.85*** |
| αscore | 0.0816 | 8.10*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9858 | 191.86*** |
| νDF | 10.1121 | 1.10 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3724 | 2.85*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0816 | 8.10*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9858 | 191.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1121 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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