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State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

16.95%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

17.00%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Month

17.15%

decreased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 10.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3724
2.85***
αscore0.0816
8.10***
βpersistence0.9858
191.86***
νDF10.1121
1.10

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3724
2.85***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0816
8.10***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9858
191.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.1121
1.10

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days