Skip to main content
V-Lab

State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

16.90%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

16.86%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

16.69%

decreased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9367
9.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0906
34.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9843
561.48***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8245
5.28***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days