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State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

19.14%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Week

19.04%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Month

18.66%

decreased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9418
9.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0902
34.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9845
559.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.7530
5.31***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

44 days