Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.34%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

13.41%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

13.64%

increased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 43-day half-lifev = 8.86 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9302
2.47**
αARCH0.0906
8.60***
βGARCH0.9841
140.50***
νDF8.8618
1.32

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9302
2.47**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0906
8.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9841
140.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8618
1.32

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days