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State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

21.48%

increased by 1.78%

1 Week

21.32%

increased by 1.62%

1 Month

20.74%

increased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 43-day half-lifev = 9.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.9636
2.60***
αscore0.0942
8.57***
βpersistence0.9842
148.24***
νDF9.5779
1.24

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.9636
2.60***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0942
8.57***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9842
148.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5779
1.24

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days