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State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

14.54%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

14.57%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

14.66%

decreased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9336
9.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0907
34.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9842
556.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.7974
5.29***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days