V-Lab
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
22.05%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Week
22.16%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Month
22.58%
decreased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0509 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 46.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9954 | 979.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5959 | 7.21*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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