Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.68%
increased by 0.34%
1 Week
19.82%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
20.37%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~145 daysv = 8.56 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.9433 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.0884 | 11.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9952 | 232.92*** |
| νDF | 8.5648 | 1.78* |
0.995
Persistence145d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9433 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 11.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 232.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5648 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
145 days
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