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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

15.49%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

15.71%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Month

16.57%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 daysv = 8.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.9602
1.17
αARCH0.0887
11.47***
βGARCH0.9953
235.23***
νDF8.6022
1.78*

0.995

Persistence

146d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9602
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0887
11.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9953
235.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6022
1.78*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

146 days