Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.65%
1 Week
34.63%
1 Month
34.55%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.1056 | 1.18 |
| αscore | 0.0895 | 11.68*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9954 | 242.18*** |
| νDF | 8.6213 | 1.81* |
0.995
Persistence149d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.1056 | 1.18 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0895 | 11.68*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9954 | 242.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6213 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
149 days
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