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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

16.63%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Week

16.84%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

17.60%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

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graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 daysv = 8.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.9493
1.17
αARCH0.0885
11.48***
βGARCH0.9953
234.01***
νDF8.5715
1.79*

0.995

Persistence

146d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9493
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0885
11.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9953
234.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5715
1.79*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

146 days