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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

34.65%

increased by 3.75%

1 Week

34.63%

increased by 3.73%

1 Month

34.55%

increased by 3.65%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~149 daysv = 8.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run4.1056
1.18
αscore0.0895
11.68***
βpersistence0.9954
242.18***
νDF8.6213
1.81*

0.995

Persistence

149d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

4.1056
1.18
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0895
11.68***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9954
242.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6213
1.81*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

149 days