V-Lab
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
23.76%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
23.85%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Month
24.19%
decreased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0903 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 46.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 994.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5911 | 7.24*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
153 days
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