V-Lab
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
16.63%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
16.84%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
17.60%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 daysv = 8.57 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.9493 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.0885 | 11.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9953 | 234.01*** |
| νDF | 8.5715 | 1.79* |
0.995
Persistence146d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9493 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 11.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9953 | 234.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5715 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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