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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

19.68%

increased by 0.34%

1 Week

19.82%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

20.37%

increased by 1.03%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~145 daysv = 8.56 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.9433
1.17
αARCH0.0884
11.45***
βGARCH0.9952
232.92***
νDF8.5648
1.78*

0.995

Persistence

145d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9433
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0884
11.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9952
232.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5648
1.78*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

145 days