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V-Lab

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

22.05%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Week

22.16%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Month

22.58%

decreased by 0.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.0509
4.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0883
46.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9954
979.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5959
7.21***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

151 days