Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.80%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Week
24.88%
decreased by 1.51%
1 Month
25.17%
decreased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1073 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 46.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 999.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5769 | 7.27*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
154 days
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