V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
37.60%
decreased by 1.98%
1 Week
37.48%
decreased by 2.10%
1 Month
37.05%
decreased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3092 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0717 | 34.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9925 | 807.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1830 | 5.29*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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