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iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

53.87%

increased by 7.18%

1 Week

53.63%

increased by 6.94%

1 Month

52.70%

increased by 6.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 daysv = 8.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run3.6493
1.35
αscore0.0735
8.79***
βpersistence0.9934
207.88***
νDF8.7379
1.21

0.993

Persistence

105d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

3.6493
1.35
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0735
8.79***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9934
207.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.7379
1.21

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days