V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
39.47%
decreased by 2.15%
1 Week
39.34%
decreased by 2.28%
1 Month
38.82%
decreased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3222 | 5.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0714 | 34.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 808.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0912 | 5.37*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
Other iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs