iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
53.87%
1 Week
53.63%
1 Month
52.70%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.6493 | 1.35 |
| αscore | 0.0735 | 8.79*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9934 | 207.88*** |
| νDF | 8.7379 | 1.21 |
0.993
Persistence105d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.6493 | 1.35 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0735 | 8.79*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9934 | 207.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.7379 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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