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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

37.60%

decreased by 1.98%

1 Week

37.48%

decreased by 2.10%

1 Month

37.05%

decreased by 2.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3092
5.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0717
34.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9925
807.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1830
5.29***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days