iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
31.72%
increased by 3.11%
1 Week
31.66%
increased by 3.05%
1 Month
31.44%
increased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 125% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0190 | 3.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.1632 | 10.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9848 | 323.53*** |
| γleverage | -0.0628 | -4.63*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0190 | 3.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1632 | 10.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9848 | 323.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0628 | -4.63*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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