V-Lab
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
8.00%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
8.30%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
9.49%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The leverage effect is captured by the negative gamma (gamma = -0.1384), confirming that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks of equal magnitude.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0036 | 1.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1360 | 25.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9749 | 652.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1383 | -37.64*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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