V-Lab
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
10.42%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
10.66%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
11.46%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1033 | 7.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1149 | 9.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8645 | 72.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0007 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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