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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Japan ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

20.30%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Week

20.53%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

21.22%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6150
6.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1025
8.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8559
57.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0167
-1.29
γ20.0407
2.14**
γ3-0.0501
-3.58***
γ40.0600
4.73***
γ5-0.0493
-5.52***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days