V-Lab
iShares MSCI Japan ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
18.15%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
18.58%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
19.82%
increased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6138 | 6.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1027 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8553 | 57.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0166 | -1.29 |
| γ2 | 0.0404 | 2.14** |
| γ3 | -0.0497 | -3.57*** |
| γ4 | 0.0595 | 4.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.0489 | -5.50*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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