V-Lab
iShares MSCI Japan ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
20.30%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
20.53%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
21.22%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6150 | 6.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1025 | 8.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8559 | 57.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0167 | -1.29 |
| γ2 | 0.0407 | 2.14** |
| γ3 | -0.0501 | -3.58*** |
| γ4 | 0.0600 | 4.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.0493 | -5.52*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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