V-Lab
iShares MSCI Japan ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
21.68%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
21.81%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Month
22.22%
decreased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6074 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1021 | 8.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8555 | 56.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0171 | -1.32 |
| γ2 | 0.0414 | 2.18** |
| γ3 | -0.0512 | -3.66*** |
| γ4 | 0.0619 | 4.82*** |
| γ5 | -0.0512 | -5.55*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
Other iShares MSCI Japan ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs