V-Lab
iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.85%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
19.49%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
20.87%
increased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 235% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 235% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0447 | 3.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8380 | 50.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.1051 | 5.17*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0057 | 1.75* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0329 | 3.07*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9641 | 82.82*** |
0.935
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0447 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 50.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1051 | 5.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0057 | 1.75* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0329 | 3.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9641 | 82.82*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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