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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

18.85%

increased by 0.36%

1 Week

19.49%

increased by 1.00%

1 Month

20.87%

increased by 2.38%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 235% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 235% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0447
3.70***
βGARCH0.8380
50.65***
γleverage0.1051
5.17***
λ₁tau intercept0.0057
1.75*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0329
3.07***
λ₃tau persistence0.9641
82.82***

0.935

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0447
3.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8380
50.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1051
5.17***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0057
1.75*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0329
3.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9641
82.82***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days