V-Lab
iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
21.93%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
22.27%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
23.31%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 236% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0448 | 14.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8351 | 157.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1056 | 19.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0063 | 7.42*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0362 | 7.36*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9606 | 183.08*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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