iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.52%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
18.11%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
19.58%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 236% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 236% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0445 | 3.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8380 | 50.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.1051 | 5.18*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0058 | 1.75* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0330 | 3.06*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9639 | 82.15*** |
0.935
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0445 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 50.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1051 | 5.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0058 | 1.75* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0330 | 3.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9639 | 82.15*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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