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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1.50%

decreased by 19.85%

1 Week

0.13%

decreased by 21.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7499
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0001
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8211
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0041
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5965

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-