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iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

17.52%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

18.11%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

19.58%

increased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 236% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 236% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0445
3.70***
βGARCH0.8380
50.67***
γleverage0.1051
5.18***
λ₁tau intercept0.0058
1.75*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0330
3.06***
λ₃tau persistence0.9639
82.15***

0.935

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0445
3.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8380
50.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1051
5.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0058
1.75*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0330
3.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9639
82.15***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days