V-Lab
iShares MSCI Japan ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.45%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
22.51%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
22.77%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 160% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0215 | 20.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0467 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9082 | 470.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0748 | 12.92*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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