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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Japan ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

22.83%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Week

22.89%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Month

23.10%

decreased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 158% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0207
20.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0454
18.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9111
478.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0719
12.76***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days