V-Lab
iShares MSCI Japan ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
21.08%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
21.18%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
21.53%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 160% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0215 | 20.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0465 | 18.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9086 | 471.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0745 | 12.90*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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