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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Japan ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

22.45%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

22.51%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

22.77%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 160% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0215
20.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0467
18.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9082
470.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0748
12.92***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days