V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
38.44%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Week
38.84%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Month
39.86%
decreased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0270 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8192 | 108.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1244 | 23.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0095 | 4.36*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0430 | 5.08*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9538 | 105.75*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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