V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
33.41%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
34.56%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
36.92%
increased by 2.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0271 | 8.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8193 | 108.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1244 | 23.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0095 | 4.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0425 | 5.10*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9543 | 107.54*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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