V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
38.86%
decreased by 1.87%
1 Week
39.14%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Month
39.60%
decreased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0276 | 9.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8167 | 107.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1245 | 23.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0092 | 4.28*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0423 | 5.10*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9546 | 108.06*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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