State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.26%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
15.43%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
16.04%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6931 | 8.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0871 | 32.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9863 | 530.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4983 | 5.34*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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