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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.26%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

15.43%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

16.04%

increased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6931
8.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0871
32.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
530.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4983
5.34***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days