V-Lab
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
13.68%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
13.91%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
14.73%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 8.50 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6805 | 2.07** |
| αARCH | 0.0864 | 8.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9863 | 134.20*** |
| νDF | 8.5030 | 1.34 |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6805 | 2.07** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0864 | 8.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9863 | 134.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5030 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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