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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

26.76%

increased by 4.77%

1 Week

26.62%

increased by 4.63%

1 Month

26.07%

increased by 4.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 8.81 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.7087
2.12**
αscore0.0884
8.00***
βpersistence0.9861
136.15***
νDF8.8103
1.31

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.7087
2.12**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0884
8.00***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9861
136.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8103
1.31

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days