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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

13.68%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

13.91%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

14.73%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 8.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6805
2.07**
αARCH0.0864
8.07***
βGARCH0.9863
134.20***
νDF8.5030
1.34

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6805
2.07**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0864
8.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
134.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5030
1.34

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days