Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

15.34%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

15.51%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

16.10%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 8.48 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6878
2.05**
αARCH0.0864
8.06***
βGARCH0.9863
133.83***
νDF8.4832
1.34

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6878
2.05**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0864
8.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
133.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4832
1.34

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days