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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

16.70%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

16.82%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

17.25%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6985
8.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0865
32.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9864
532.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4623
5.35***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days