V-Lab
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.70%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
16.82%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
17.25%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6985 | 8.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0865 | 32.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 532.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4623 | 5.35*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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