V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
19.09%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
19.37%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
20.38%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 318% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0395 | 14.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0280 | 12.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9152 | 473.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0891 | 17.17*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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