V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
18.69%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
18.98%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
20.03%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 323% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 323% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0392 | 3.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0277 | 2.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9153 | 118.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.0895 | 4.33*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0392 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0277 | 2.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9153 | 118.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0895 | 4.33*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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