V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
17.70%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
18.04%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
19.22%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 323% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 323% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0392 | 3.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0277 | 2.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9153 | 118.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.0896 | 4.32*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0392 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0277 | 2.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9153 | 118.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0896 | 4.32*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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