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iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

18.69%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

18.98%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

20.03%

increased by 0.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 9, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 323% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 323% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0392
3.73***
αARCH0.0277
2.98***
βGARCH0.9153
118.87***
γleverage0.0895
4.33***

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0392
3.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0277
2.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9153
118.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0895
4.33***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days