V-Lab
SPDR Gold Shares APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
23.78%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
23.71%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Month
23.46%
decreased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0125 | 3.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0577 | 4.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9326 | 69.91*** |
| γleverage | -0.1282 | -1.60 |
| δpower | 2.0193 | 5.61*** |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0125 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0577 | 4.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9326 | 69.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1282 | -1.60 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0193 | 5.61*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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