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V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

23.78%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

23.71%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Month

23.46%

decreased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0125
3.40***
αARCH0.0577
4.14***
βGARCH0.9326
69.91***
γleverage-0.1282
-1.60
δpower2.0193
5.61***

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0125
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0577
4.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9326
69.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1282
-1.60
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0193
5.61***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days