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V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

27.54%

increased by 8.45%

1 Week

25.77%

increased by 6.68%

1 Month

23.24%

increased by 4.15%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5719
3.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1224
3.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5821
10.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0642
-1.24
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
5.14***

Persistence:

0.780

Half-life:

3 days