V-Lab
Calamos Autocallable INM ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.16%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
5.49%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
5.73%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 2.74 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 2.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0317 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5199 | 9.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7432 | 6.62*** |
Persistence:
0.668
Half-life:
2 days
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