V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
154.51%
increased by 4.40%
1 Week
149.15%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
137.37%
decreased by 12.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 86% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1640 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7681 | 21.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2692 | 3.82*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1246 | 2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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