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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

154.51%

increased by 4.40%

1 Week

149.15%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Month

137.37%

decreased by 12.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 86% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.16
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1640
6.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7681
21.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2692
3.82***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1246
2.95***

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days