V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
197.69%
1 Week
198.26%
1 Month
199.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8302 | 0.26 |
| αARCH | 0.0308 | 0.12 |
| βGARCH | 0.9216 | 8.13*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 0.08 |
| δpower | 1.0854 | 0.60 |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8302 | 0.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0308 | 0.12 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9216 | 8.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.08 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0854 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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