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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

197.69%

decreased by 4.87%

1 Week

198.26%

decreased by 4.30%

1 Month

199.91%

decreased by 2.65%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifeδ = 1.09 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8302
0.26
αARCH0.0308
0.12
βGARCH0.9216
8.13***
γleverage1.0000
0.08
δpower1.0854
0.60

0.948

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8302
0.26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0308
0.12
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9216
8.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.08
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0854
0.60

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days