V-Lab
Roundhill 100 0Dte Strgy ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.75%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
17.91%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
18.31%
decreased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 1.45 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0984 | 7.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0664 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8459 | 47.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.06 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4548 | 5.61*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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