Roundhill 100 0Dte Strgy ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.76%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
20.71%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
20.65%
decreased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2024 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3316 | 2.00** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 1.98** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6514 | 3.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 43.3364 | 1.61 |
| γ2 | -64.2276 | -1.63 |
| γ3 | 32.8465 | 1.44 |
| γ4 | -8.4330 | -0.49 |
| γ5 | -37.4395 | -1.98** |
| γ6 | 81.4030 | 3.69*** |
| γ7 | -75.6491 | -3.93*** |
| γ8 | 37.0909 | 2.23** |
| γ9 | -11.3834 | -0.81 |
Persistence:
0.752
Half-life:
2 days
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