V-Lab
Roundhill 100 0Dte Strgy ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.86%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
17.21%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
18.21%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6568 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1029 | 9.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9532 | 106.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4410 | 2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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